Report Detail Summary

The Recovery: Alternative Scenarios

May 26, 2020

The economy is entering a new phase in the war against COVID19, the recovery phase. Politicians, epidemiologists, and economists have offered different opinions as to how fast to reopen the economy. There is also a big debate regarding the likely shape of the recovery. To non-economists the debate sounds like a recital of the second half of the alphabet. Is it going to be a V recovery a W recovery or something else? A derivative issue of great import to investors is what will the recovery portend? Who is likely to outperform and who is likely to under-perform during the recovery phase and in the long run? Most of the discussion in the press points to two alternative scenarios. One assumes that eventually the economy returns to its pre-COVID19 long-run equilibrium and another assumes that social distancing and other measures have a permanent impact on the economy.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.

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