Report Detail Summary

What Makes the Dollar Tick: Real Disturbances?

November 17, 2019

The recent trade deals as well as the current trade negotiations with China. could have long term effects on the economy, the markets and the terms of trade. The China trade deal will lower the US terms of trade. However, the decline in terms of trade will not be bearish. Here is why: During the trade negotiations with China we noticed that when President Trump has gotten tough, the market has gone down, the dollar appreciated, and bond yields declined. In contrast when the trade negotiations go well the reverse happens.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.


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