Report Detail Summary

What Makes the Dollar Tick: The Terms of Trade?

November 10, 2019

We present data suggesting a link between fiscal policy and other potential sources of real economic disturbances and the terms of trade. It documents the long-lasting real exchange rate cycle coinciding with the long relative returns cycles. The data also suggests that when the current dollar appreciation peaks and turns, there will be a long-lasting prolonged dollar decline. During that time international investing will outperform domestic investing. If the past is a guide, the mean reversion in the data points to several years of international outperformance and terms of trade decline.

You must have an active account to view these reports. You may register for a trial here

Download Complete Report in PDF Format

Download Complete Report in Word Format

Copyright © 2018 La Jolla Economics All Rights Reserved
Legal Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Contact Information - Login

The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.

Economic Disturbances and Equilibrium in an Integrated Global Economy

Cocktail Economics: Discovering Investment Truths from Everyday Conversations

Understanding Asset Allocation: An Intuitive Approach to Maximizing Your Portfolio