Report Detail Summary

August 05, 2019

One would wonder why a country would deliberately depreciate its currency. Inflicting a higher inflation rate on its population is not a good way for a government to gain popularity or to inflict damage on its competitors. Similarly lowering the country rate of return relative to the rest of the world is not a way to attract capital, increase incentive to save and invest in the country. Why would a country engage in currency manipulation that lowers its exchange rate? A higher inflation and a lower rate of return are not good things. Focusing on the exchange rate and designating China a currency manipulator is a major policy mistake that will takes us closer to a full-blown trade war increasing the danger of a global recession. A bearish outlook. The Stock market decline is a major warning signal. Two wrongs donít make a right.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.

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