Report Detail Summary

Around the World in 90 Days : Part I

March 21, 2019

During a 2016 speech delivered to the Economic Club of Detroit, Republican Candidate Donald Trump outlined the key elements of his economic platform. Here is what Mr. Trump had to say: I am proposing an across-the- board income tax reduction, especially for middle-income Americans. This will lead to millions of new good-paying jobs….. The United States also has the highest business tax rate among the major industrialized nations of the world, at 35 percent. It’s almost 40 percent when you add in taxes at the state level…... Under my plan, no American company will pay more than 15% of their business income in taxes. Small businesses will benefit the most from this plan. …. It is estimated that current overregulation is costing our economy as much as $2 trillion dollars a year – When we reform our tax, trade, energy and regulatory policies, we will open a new chapter in American Prosperity. The economic orthodoxy had a very negative opinion of the Trump economic program. Here is what two such luminaries had to say: “If Donald Trump is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States,” Larry Summers, But Mr. Summers was not alone in his opinion. Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.……. Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence and be bullied by cranks.’’’ So, we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened. Nobel Prize Winner Paul Krugman

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.

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