Report Detail Summary

Economic Inferences: Facts and Fallacies

January 28, 2019

During the last 7 years of the Obama Administration, the economy averaged 2.09% and during its last year it grew 1.86%. In contrast during the first 7quarters of the Trump Administration the economy grew at a 2.76% annual rate. During the first 3 quarters of 2018 the economy expanded at a 2.95% annual rate. These are undisputed facts; the numbers are what they are. However, there is considerable disagreement as to the cause of such economic performance. The lyrics of the song MacArthur Park suggest that this is an important issue: Someone left the cake out in the rain I don't think that I can take it 'Cause it took so long to bake it And I'll never have that recipe again Oh no! We need to know the recipes that lead to both good and bad outcomes. That way we will be able to avoid the latter and replicate the former.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.


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