January 18, 2019

Considering the recent industrial production data, we have re-estimated our model forecasts and estimated the probability of the index outperforming its previous measures. We estimate the likelihood of the industrial production index expansion outperforming its previous quarter to be 36.86% which points to a lower rate of expansion. The estimated probabilities then rise to 50.65% by the third quarter of 2019, suggesting a continued rate of expansion, albeit at a lower rate, and reaching a steady state rate of expansion during the third quarter of 2019. The likelihood of outperforming the trailing 4 quarter expansion rate is estimated to be 45.81% during the first quarter 0f 2019, and then fall steadily to 23.48% during the fourth quarter of 2019. The data clearly points to an expanding economy at a much slower pace.

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