Report Detail Summary

Around the World in 90 Days

December 10, 2018

The capital markets have been volatile, driven by concerns about slowing global growth, trade disputes and the potential for higher interest rates. The uncertainty has been fueled in part by the Presidentís tweets. His tweet on Mr. Tariff and the relentless attack on Jerome Powell are just two examples of tweets that add fuel to the fire. Yet the pundits fail to consider that while the President says many things on tweeter, he has not interfered with the actions of the Fed. Hence from our point of view the tweets are just noise. What the pundits and investors need to focus is on the Presidentís policies not his words. So far, President Trump he has been true to most of his campaign promises. To the extent that the tweet muddles the political and economic environment, they diminish the effectiveness of his policy initiatives. Judging by his actions, he deserves the benefit of the doubt, even when we do not approve of how he expresses his views. However, this does not mean that one needs to agree with every policy initiative. Nor do we need to disagree with every policy initiative as the Never Trumpers and the resistance do. In the next few paragraphs we lay our arguments as to why we agree with some policies of the Trump administration and why we disagree with others. In the process we also outline our views regarding the economic environment that we foresee.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.


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