Report Detail Summary

The Fourth Quarter Outlook

September 10, 2018

The LJE quarterly forecast has a dual purpose. One is to produce a forecast that accurately captures the economic environment we foresee for the coming quarter. The second objective is to dress up the forecast with a parsimonious and coherent description of the foreseen economic environment. The forecast paints the following picture for the coming 12 months: an inflation rate in the 2.2% range and a 2.8% growth of economic activity that will continue throughout 2019. What type of valuation will such an environment produce? Our valuation model suggests a low double digit equity appreciation for the next 12 months.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.


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