Report Detail Summary

Interpreting Economic Data

June 20, 2018

The elections of Barack Obama and Donald Trump as presidents of the United States presents us with two distinct episodes which can be used to illustrate the potential perils of a strong prior. In an extreme case, the pundits or investors will not revise their posterior distribution and thus will cling to their beliefs no matter the evidence.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.

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