Report Detail Summary

Balance Sheet Issues

November 16, 2017

Analysts have expressed a variety of opinions regarding the potential impact a reduction of the Fed balance sheet will have on the economy and the financial markets. The forecasts are so varied that one can search the web and find an opinion that justifies any possible outcome regarding the level of interest rates, slope of the yield curve, and overall inflation rate. We contend that the variety of conclusions depends critically on the underlying assumptions made by the analysts.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.

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