Report Detail Summary

The Iowa Electronic Markets, the Conventions, and the S&P 500

August 03, 2016

Over the years we have argued that the Iowa Electronic Markets, IEM, may provide better information than the polling data. With that in mind, we use the share prices to make inferences about the market expectations regarding the coming national elections. Even if we measure the expectations correctly, this does not mean that we have an accurate forecast. All it assures is that we have an unbiased estimate of what people expect.

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