Report Detail Summary

The Iowa Electronic Markets, the Conventions, and the S&P 500

August 03, 2016

Over the years we have argued that the Iowa Electronic Markets, IEM, may provide better information than the polling data. With that in mind, we use the share prices to make inferences about the market expectations regarding the coming national elections. Even if we measure the expectations correctly, this does not mean that we have an accurate forecast. All it assures is that we have an unbiased estimate of what people expect.

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The ValueTiming™ strategy is based on the assumption that politicians and policymakers have particular views of the world, and that they will in general adopt policy measures that are consistent with these views.


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